Monday, January 4, 2010
CF-HR
The posts have been pretty non-existant lately, but I wanted to put up the link to the (near) final version of the College Football High Risk fund. It has done quite well the second half of the season and I'm fired up. I was sick of picking for a while in the hockey and basketball fund, but I'm about ready to give it another go. Anyway, here's where to check out the CF-HR.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Two More Funds
The time has come for me to unveil two new funds that I've been working on. I've been tracking these for about a month now and they are doing reasonably well. Both had a major fall off over the weekend, but it looks like a rebound is well under way. The goal is to post weekly updates on the progress of the funds, but I will keep the linked spreadsheets up to date at all times.
NHL - NBA Every Game, Every Day
As the title implies, this is my attempt to bet every NHL and NBA game in a single fund. The goal here will just be to pick winners, no point spreads. I'm hoping the money line can be a profitable place. So far, this fund has consisted entirely of NHL games. I am using a formula to predict how much to bet and on whom, so I need the NBA to get a few more games under their belt before I go to them. At this point my formula predicts a winner and tells me how much to put on it. I am either putting 10%, 5%, or 3% of the fund value on each game. I plan on continuing that once the NBA is factored in, but we'll see how that plays out. I have noticed that the money lines on NBA games are a lot bigger than the NHL, so I will have to see how I feel about that.
There's no way I'm going to be able to keep up with posting these games and results every day, so I created a google docs spreadsheet that I will link to from here for people to check out the entire body of work. And without further ado, here it is.
10-5-3
This one is basically your every day better's fund. I pick whatever games I like from wherever I like them, and bet them. The 10-5-3 label comes from the wager system that I have implemented for this fund. Betting particular dollar amounts doesn't allow for someone to jump in and start in the middle and get the same rate of return, so I will bet a percentage of the fund value at the beginning of the day. So, I bet 10% on something I feel really good about, 5% I feel ok about, and 3% on something I just kind of like. This could go pretty much anywhere, so feel free to follow along.
NHL - NBA Every Game, Every Day
As the title implies, this is my attempt to bet every NHL and NBA game in a single fund. The goal here will just be to pick winners, no point spreads. I'm hoping the money line can be a profitable place. So far, this fund has consisted entirely of NHL games. I am using a formula to predict how much to bet and on whom, so I need the NBA to get a few more games under their belt before I go to them. At this point my formula predicts a winner and tells me how much to put on it. I am either putting 10%, 5%, or 3% of the fund value on each game. I plan on continuing that once the NBA is factored in, but we'll see how that plays out. I have noticed that the money lines on NBA games are a lot bigger than the NHL, so I will have to see how I feel about that.
There's no way I'm going to be able to keep up with posting these games and results every day, so I created a google docs spreadsheet that I will link to from here for people to check out the entire body of work. And without further ado, here it is.
10-5-3
This one is basically your every day better's fund. I pick whatever games I like from wherever I like them, and bet them. The 10-5-3 label comes from the wager system that I have implemented for this fund. Betting particular dollar amounts doesn't allow for someone to jump in and start in the middle and get the same rate of return, so I will bet a percentage of the fund value at the beginning of the day. So, I bet 10% on something I feel really good about, 5% I feel ok about, and 3% on something I just kind of like. This could go pretty much anywhere, so feel free to follow along.
CF-HR 11/7
Once again, let's try to make a move. These one for two weekends are slowly bleeding down the fund with vig. Let me say off of the top that I don't love this set of games. I ended up moving back towards an old favorite of mine, the over under. Basically one of these is based on pretty sound research and the other is just a feeling based on past history and gut.
OVER - Oregon at Stanford (57.5)
Off the top, this looks like a relatively big number, but when you look at the teams, it isn't so imposing. Stanford is averaging 32 points a game while Oregon is averaging 36 a game. Oregon's average goes up to 39.5 if you take out the Boise nightmare that was opening night. Both teams have solid, but not overwhelming defenses and have been prone to giving up big numbers when they come up against a solid opponent. I think Oregon wins this game relatively easily, but Stanford is a tough team and I think will be able to score into the 20s at home, which should be enough to push the number over the top.
OVER - LSU at Alabama (38)
This is kind of a flyer, but one that I actually feel pretty good about. Looking at the team's numbers from the season, the thing that stands out is that both teams have very strong defenses. What lurks though is that they both have playmakers on offense and have shown the potential to go high. LSU's offense has been much improved since their bye week, and I have a feeling Alabama will do the same coming off of last week's bye. Finally, we've seen recent games in this series get a little crazy, and I have a feeling we'll see that again. Expect this game to be 14-10 or so late in the third quarter and just when you aren't liking this number anymore, the fireworks will begin.
OVER - Oregon at Stanford (57.5)
Off the top, this looks like a relatively big number, but when you look at the teams, it isn't so imposing. Stanford is averaging 32 points a game while Oregon is averaging 36 a game. Oregon's average goes up to 39.5 if you take out the Boise nightmare that was opening night. Both teams have solid, but not overwhelming defenses and have been prone to giving up big numbers when they come up against a solid opponent. I think Oregon wins this game relatively easily, but Stanford is a tough team and I think will be able to score into the 20s at home, which should be enough to push the number over the top.
OVER - LSU at Alabama (38)
This is kind of a flyer, but one that I actually feel pretty good about. Looking at the team's numbers from the season, the thing that stands out is that both teams have very strong defenses. What lurks though is that they both have playmakers on offense and have shown the potential to go high. LSU's offense has been much improved since their bye week, and I have a feeling Alabama will do the same coming off of last week's bye. Finally, we've seen recent games in this series get a little crazy, and I have a feeling we'll see that again. Expect this game to be 14-10 or so late in the third quarter and just when you aren't liking this number anymore, the fireworks will begin.
CF-HR Recap
Yet another one out of two week. As both games entered the fourth quarter Saturday afternoon, I was definitely more concerned about the under on Purdue Wisconsin than I was about Indiana. But the Hawkeyes came through again tallying an amazing 28 straight points to go from a 10 point deficit to a 18 point loss. Killer. The worst part was that Iowa was just trying to run out the clock with an 11 point lead, but Indiana couldn't just give me one more tackle. Crap. So it goes I suppose.
Friday, October 30, 2009
CF - HR, 10/31
Just a brief rundown of this week's picks.
Indiana (+17.5) at Iowa
Indiana is a becoming a solid Big Ten team. They aren't likely to win many more games in the league or make a bowl game, but they have been competitive. I'm probably a bit biased by seeing them give Michigan a run for their money, but I think they have some solid pieces.
Iowa is solid and talented, but not particularly explosive. The Hawkeyes' average margin of victory at home is only 4 points this season, and that includes games against IAA Northern Iowa and Sun Belt powerhouse Arkansas State. Add in that Iowa is coming off a tough three game stretch that included a home nail biter against Michigan, and tough road trips to Wisconsin and Michigan State, and the Hawkeyes appear primed for a let down. Not enough to lose outright, but enough not to cover a 17.5 point spread against an underrated team.
UNDER - Purdue at Wisconsin (53)
This one is based a lot on feeling and past performance. These are two average teams that scream for an average game. I don't see either of these teams scoring more than a few touchdowns, so 53 just seems out of range.
For the record, a few others I feel good about this week, but aren't in my top two.
Boston College (-5.5) over Central Michigan
UNDER - NC State at FSU (64.5)
New Mexico State (+44) over Ohio State
Georgia Tech (-405) over Vanderbilt
Mississippi (-195) over Auburn
Nebraska (-500) over Baylor
Oklahoma State (315) over Texas
UNDER - Mississippi State at Kentucky (45)
UNDER - New Mexico at San Diego State (52)
USC (-3) over Oregon
Michigan State (-3.5) over Minnesota
Louisville (-2.5) over Arkansas State
Indiana (+17.5) at Iowa
Indiana is a becoming a solid Big Ten team. They aren't likely to win many more games in the league or make a bowl game, but they have been competitive. I'm probably a bit biased by seeing them give Michigan a run for their money, but I think they have some solid pieces.
Iowa is solid and talented, but not particularly explosive. The Hawkeyes' average margin of victory at home is only 4 points this season, and that includes games against IAA Northern Iowa and Sun Belt powerhouse Arkansas State. Add in that Iowa is coming off a tough three game stretch that included a home nail biter against Michigan, and tough road trips to Wisconsin and Michigan State, and the Hawkeyes appear primed for a let down. Not enough to lose outright, but enough not to cover a 17.5 point spread against an underrated team.
UNDER - Purdue at Wisconsin (53)
This one is based a lot on feeling and past performance. These are two average teams that scream for an average game. I don't see either of these teams scoring more than a few touchdowns, so 53 just seems out of range.
For the record, a few others I feel good about this week, but aren't in my top two.
Boston College (-5.5) over Central Michigan
UNDER - NC State at FSU (64.5)
New Mexico State (+44) over Ohio State
Georgia Tech (-405) over Vanderbilt
Mississippi (-195) over Auburn
Nebraska (-500) over Baylor
Oklahoma State (315) over Texas
UNDER - Mississippi State at Kentucky (45)
UNDER - New Mexico at San Diego State (52)
USC (-3) over Oregon
Michigan State (-3.5) over Minnesota
Louisville (-2.5) over Arkansas State
Monday, October 26, 2009
CF - HR Weekend Wrapup
50% does not make this fund grow, but it doesn't kill it either. I whiffed pretty badly on the Oregon / Washington pick. I felt pretty good with my rationale, but obviously I underestimated Oregon. They look great and just keep building momentum going in this weekend's home game with USC. Of course, I will seriously consider picking USC this coming weekend (opened at -3), but I have to see what else is out there and the over / unders before I go there.
Auburn at LSU went more along the lines of what I was expecting. Auburn needed a late TD to even get to 10. It looks like Les Miles made some nice adjustments during the bye week and LSU's offense is in sync going forward. Definitely something to consider going forward. I'd say any o/u under 40 is an easy over and anything over 50 is an easy under for LSU at this point.
Here's where we stand at this point. Still working to get back to even, but the massive bleeding seems to have stopped.
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