CF-HR 11/7

Once again, let's try to make a move. These one for two weekends are slowly bleeding down the fund with vig. Let me say off of the top that I don't love this set of games. I ended up moving back towards an old favorite of mine, the over under. Basically one of these is based on pretty sound research and the other is just a feeling based on past history and gut.

OVER - Oregon at Stanford (57.5)

Off the top, this looks like a relatively big number, but when you look at the teams, it isn't so imposing. Stanford is averaging 32 points a game while Oregon is averaging 36 a game. Oregon's average goes up to 39.5 if you take out the Boise nightmare that was opening night. Both teams have solid, but not overwhelming defenses and have been prone to giving up big numbers when they come up against a solid opponent. I think Oregon wins this game relatively easily, but Stanford is a tough team and I think will be able to score into the 20s at home, which should be enough to push the number over the top.


OVER - LSU at Alabama (38)

This is kind of a flyer, but one that I actually feel pretty good about. Looking at the team's numbers from the season, the thing that stands out is that both teams have very strong defenses. What lurks though is that they both have playmakers on offense and have shown the potential to go high. LSU's offense has been much improved since their bye week, and I have a feeling Alabama will do the same coming off of last week's bye. Finally, we've seen recent games in this series get a little crazy, and I have a feeling we'll see that again. Expect this game to be 14-10 or so late in the third quarter and just when you aren't liking this number anymore, the fireworks will begin.